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Six months after launching what he expected to be a lightning offensive against Iran, President Donald Trump is facing a mounting political crisis. His approval rating has sunk to a record low of 33 percent, support for the Iran war has collapsed to 31 percent, and his escalating trade war with Canada is now drawing Republican backlash — all less than 80 days before the November midterm elections.
Trump’s Approval Rating Hits Record Low
A Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted August 21-24 found that Trump’s approval rating remains stuck at 33 percent — the lowest of his presidency and the second consecutive Reuters/Ipsos poll at that level. The poll surveyed 1,215 U.S. adults nationwide and had a margin of error of 3 percentage points.
Key findings:
- Support for the Iran war has fallen to just 31 percent of Americans — the lowest level since the conflict began. Among Republicans, support for the war has dropped from 77 percent in March to 69 percent today.
- 69 percent of Americans do not support U.S. military action against Iran, up from 63 percent in March.
- Independent voters favor Democrats over Republicans by 33 percent to 19 percent when asked who they would vote for in congressional elections.
- 83 percent of Americans believe the war will go on “for an extended period of time”.
The war has killed at least 18 U.S. service members and wounded more than 750, according to Pentagon figures. Thousands more have died in Iran and Lebanon.
“Is There a Rabbit in the Hat? No, I Think the Hat Is Empty”
At an impromptu press conference last week, Trump barely mentioned the war. During a 36-minute event, he used the word “granite” 13 times and the word “Iran” just three — while leading reporters on a tour of the White House’s South Lawn to show off his latest renovations.
“Right now, the situation is so good,” Trump replied when asked about Iran.
But the war has become a millstone around Trump’s neck. US voters are angry about the war’s knock-on effect on the cost of living, and crucial midterm elections are approaching. Even his MAGA fans are questioning why the man who vowed to start no new foreign wars has gotten America into another quagmire with no apparent plan to get out of it.
“Is there a rabbit in the hat? No, I think the hat is empty.”
— William Galston, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution
The war was meant to be a quick win for Trump — like the US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolas Maduro in January. In April, Trump declared “total and complete victory” after a ceasefire announcement. But the truce collapsed, and Iran refused to bow.
The economic toll: Six months into the war, US gasoline prices are now more than $1 per gallon higher than they were before the conflict. That is weighing on Trump’s Republican allies, who will be defending narrow congressional majorities in the November 3 midterm elections.
Trump Escalates Trade War with Canada — Threatens to Rename Lake Ontario
The political headache for Trump extends beyond Iran. On Tuesday, Trump threatened to rename Lake Ontario to “Lake America” in an early morning Truth Social post.
“The United States is giving serious consideration to changing the name of Lake Ontario to Lake America in that we don’t expect to doing much business with Ontario any longer. Thank you for your attention to this matter!”
— Donald Trump
The threat came after Ontario Premier Doug Ford told the president he could “kiss my ass” in response to 50 percent U.S. tariffs on about $28 billion worth of Canadian goods that took effect Saturday.
Trump responded by calling Ford “Flunky Ford” and referring to both Ford and Prime Minister Mark Carney as “clowns” and bad leaders.
Canadian retaliation:
Prime Minister Mark Carney said retaliatory, dollar-for-dollar tariffs will hit the U.S. on September 8. Ford said that “everything is on the table” when it comes to retaliation measures.
GOP backlash:
Trump is facing a growing Republican backlash over the escalating trade war. Senators Susan Collins, Mitch McConnell, Rand Paul, and Lisa Murkowski have joined Democrats in voting to repeal the national emergency declaration used to implement the tariffs. The Canadian Chamber of Commerce called the tariffs a “body blow to North American competitiveness.”
Political strategist Jaime Watt told CBC Radio: “He’s got a very limited playbook. He’s got about four things he does, and he repeats them over again. First it was the Gulf of Mexico, now it’s Lake Ontario. It’s like trying to deal with a four-year-old having a temper tantrum.”
Mississauga Mayor Carolyn Parrish fired back: “Dear Mr. Trump: Since the Mississaugas of the Credit First Nation established their homes close to and along the shores of this lake, it has been our lifeblood. I, and everyone in Mississauga, am proud to be living along the shores of LAKE ONTARIO. We will defend its good name!”
Trump Claims All Mines Cleared from Strait of Hormuz
On Tuesday, Trump also claimed that all mines in the “international waters” of the Strait of Hormuz have been cleared or detonated, and announced a “zero tolerance” policy for any new mines laid by Iran.
“Through the Space Force, we are monitoring every inch of the strait, just as we are monitoring Gao Mountain and the three other nuclear facilities that have been destroyed. Zero tolerance for mining has been fully implemented and enforced.”
— Donald Trump
The Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20 percent of the world’s energy supply passes, has been effectively blocked by Iran since the war began, driving up global energy costs.
The Bottom Line
With less than 80 days until the midterm elections, Trump faces a perfect storm of political headwinds:
- Approval rating at 33% — a record low for his presidency
- Iran war support at 31% — the lowest since the conflict began
- Gas prices more than $1 higher than before the war
- Independent voters favoring Democrats by 33% to 19%
- An escalating trade war with Canada — drawing Republican backlash
As William Galston put it: “Is there a rabbit in the hat? No, I think the hat is empty.”
The reckoning for Trump could come in November’s midterm elections. The question is whether Republicans can hold onto their narrow congressional majorities — or whether the war, the trade war, and the cost of living will sweep Democrats into power.
Sources
Ahram Online: “Trump’s approval holds at record low as US support for Iran war falls: Reuters/Ipsos poll” (August 25, 2026)
The Express Tribune: “Trump veers from boredom to denial after six months of Iran war” (August 25, 2026)
CBC News: “Trump threatens to rename Lake Ontario ‘Lake America’ as trade feud heats up” (August 25, 2026)
Xinhua: “Trump claims all mines cleared from Strait of Hormuz ‘international waters’” (August 25, 2026)
Mediaite: “Trump Pitches Changing Lake Ontario Name in Doug Ford Fight” (August 25, 2026)
Newsweek: “Nate Silver outlines which races could decide control of Senate” (August 25, 2026)
The People’s Weekly — urban intel from a holistic social approach.
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